Experts’ Judgments of Management Journal Quality
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Combining Experts’ Causal Judgments
Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts’ opinions. She wants to combine th...
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Expert judgment (or expert elicitation) is a formal process for eliciting judgments from subject-matter experts about the value of a decision-relevant quantity. Judgments in the form of subjective probability distributions are obtained from several experts, raising the question how best to combine information from multiple experts. A number of algorithmic approaches have been proposed, of which...
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A novel explanation of judgments by experts about the likely outcome of events is presented. It is proposed that these judgments are derived from a combination of the likelihood of every known risk factor that could affect the outcome of the uncertain event, each weighted by the chance recalling that risk. To test this proposal, an ACT-R model was developed in a study of Royal Navy officers. Ea...
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Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; however, these are prone to substantial overconfidence. We investigated the influence of elicitation question format, in particular the number of steps in the elicitation procedure. In a 3-point elicitation procedure,...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Management
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0149-2063,1557-1211
DOI: 10.1177/0149206311434532